* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 41 49 57 64 71 77 84 89 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 41 49 57 64 71 77 84 89 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 44 51 58 65 73 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 12 8 5 2 6 7 14 14 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 0 6 5 4 4 -3 -4 -7 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 135 126 114 128 152 30 242 316 304 330 349 344 354 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 139 140 142 145 146 145 148 152 154 154 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 139 139 140 143 142 140 143 146 150 152 150 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 61 59 53 50 47 46 49 48 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 62 58 52 43 24 21 17 13 19 35 41 44 200 MB DIV 43 44 41 49 41 19 18 0 -8 -6 -1 -3 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -4 -6 -2 2 -3 -2 -4 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1065 981 926 898 900 743 606 553 547 356 206 227 197 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.5 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.1 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 47.2 48.9 50.3 51.5 52.7 55.1 57.3 59.3 61.2 63.2 65.4 68.0 70.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 48 54 54 63 55 68 38 71 88 89 86 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 16. 24. 32. 39. 46. 52. 59. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 47.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 47.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.47 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.78 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 18.0% 11.5% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% Logistic: 2.1% 17.3% 7.2% 1.5% 0.0% 3.9% 20.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.8% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 2.9% 13.7% 6.7% 3.7% 0.0% 1.3% 13.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/03/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 41 49 57 64 71 77 84 89 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 39 47 55 62 69 75 82 87 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 34 42 50 57 64 70 77 82 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 33 41 48 55 61 68 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT