* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 43 52 62 70 78 84 92 96 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 43 52 62 70 78 84 92 96 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 48 60 72 83 90 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 12 12 4 6 3 6 9 17 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -5 -6 -1 5 0 8 3 -1 -7 -7 -2 SHEAR DIR 85 118 117 110 124 74 43 359 6 338 356 354 356 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 139 139 142 143 143 144 148 150 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 144 140 137 136 139 139 137 138 144 146 149 148 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 12 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 60 60 55 50 47 45 47 49 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 76 64 57 54 31 23 9 10 17 31 42 49 200 MB DIV 40 39 48 48 46 17 14 -4 2 -3 8 5 11 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 -6 0 -1 0 -5 -3 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1101 986 923 872 852 857 713 590 495 396 377 357 350 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.4 14.6 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 46.0 47.9 49.3 50.6 51.6 53.4 55.3 57.0 58.6 60.3 62.2 64.3 66.7 STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 13 11 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 37 40 41 48 55 63 66 60 69 76 48 57 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 391 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 37. 45. 53. 59. 67. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 46.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.72 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.64 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.47 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.79 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 117.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 20.3% 11.9% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% Logistic: 2.9% 24.3% 10.9% 2.6% 0.0% 3.9% 17.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.2% 15.9% 7.8% 4.2% 0.0% 1.3% 12.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/02/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 32 35 43 52 62 70 78 84 92 96 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 41 50 60 68 76 82 90 94 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 35 44 54 62 70 76 84 88 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 35 45 53 61 67 75 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT