* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 48 53 57 64 70 76 81 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 48 53 57 64 70 76 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 39 43 46 50 56 62 70 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 6 7 8 10 8 2 4 6 3 7 4 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -4 -2 -2 -1 5 7 8 6 0 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 181 83 127 146 149 172 291 264 313 276 315 348 351 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 137 137 137 140 144 144 145 147 150 152 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 140 136 136 134 137 141 140 139 143 147 150 151 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 61 60 56 51 48 47 46 52 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 105 90 71 55 45 35 10 10 -3 5 28 34 49 200 MB DIV 24 41 37 49 44 10 0 8 3 -12 -3 1 0 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 1 5 2 LAND (KM) 1279 1167 1092 1030 989 942 838 684 541 455 433 413 363 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 44.0 45.8 47.2 48.5 49.6 51.8 54.1 56.2 58.3 60.1 62.2 64.4 66.9 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 13 12 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 34 41 38 44 52 62 50 64 73 51 72 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 28. 32. 39. 45. 51. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 44.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.86 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.56 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.38 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.30 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.76 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 122.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 21.5% 12.1% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% Logistic: 2.8% 20.4% 8.4% 1.7% 0.0% 4.6% 25.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 7.4% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 3.2% 16.4% 7.4% 4.1% 0.0% 1.5% 15.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/02/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/02/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 42 48 53 57 64 70 76 81 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 39 45 50 54 61 67 73 78 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 39 44 48 55 61 67 72 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 30 35 39 46 52 58 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT