* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 08/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 29 38 46 53 59 66 72 80 85 V (KT) LAND 20 24 27 29 32 40 48 56 62 68 74 82 87 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 24 25 26 28 31 36 43 50 56 63 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 14 11 6 8 7 4 3 9 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 3 3 1 4 -1 0 2 0 -3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 148 132 125 131 146 107 107 130 218 229 235 232 166 SST (C) 28.4 27.8 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.2 27.0 27.8 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 137 127 126 126 129 126 126 130 129 139 145 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 140 129 128 127 129 125 125 132 133 146 151 153 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 62 64 64 61 59 62 61 61 57 52 50 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 14 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 138 137 128 120 113 127 123 92 79 56 41 41 39 200 MB DIV 21 39 47 56 56 17 14 -1 4 3 15 10 24 700-850 TADV -7 -11 -18 -12 -8 -15 -7 2 -8 1 -3 -7 -7 LAND (KM) -34 138 333 543 753 1149 1503 1846 1980 1701 1469 1114 795 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.3 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.6 17.5 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 16.5 18.5 20.5 22.5 24.5 28.2 31.5 34.7 38.3 43.0 48.1 53.3 57.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 17 15 17 20 24 25 23 20 HEAT CONTENT 28 17 5 4 5 4 6 12 7 17 45 58 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 18. 26. 33. 39. 46. 52. 60. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.5 16.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 08/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.78 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 107.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 08/30/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 24 27 29 32 40 48 56 62 68 74 82 87 18HR AGO 20 19 22 24 27 35 43 51 57 63 69 77 82 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 29 37 45 51 57 63 71 76 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT