* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL922016 06/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 33 38 42 43 42 40 37 32 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 33 38 42 43 42 40 37 32 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 27 31 36 40 42 42 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 10 5 5 11 10 20 24 28 30 37 41 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -2 -1 -6 -4 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 -10 SHEAR DIR 221 272 313 218 275 277 276 302 286 290 282 271 261 SST (C) 24.1 23.9 23.6 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.5 23.2 22.2 21.2 20.8 19.3 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 96 95 93 93 94 96 96 95 92 89 90 86 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 81 80 80 81 84 84 85 84 84 88 83 75 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.4 -57.7 -57.5 -57.2 -58.1 -57.9 -58.4 -58.2 -58.4 -57.9 -58.2 -58.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 5 5 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 58 58 61 59 62 58 58 56 67 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -29 -13 -3 -19 -18 -3 25 36 77 97 113 162 200 MB DIV 37 15 -1 20 49 33 9 -4 -11 14 33 61 35 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 0 5 -10 3 -10 -16 -28 2 25 59 LAND (KM) 90 84 93 131 198 376 556 724 893 1166 1389 1839 1527 LAT (DEG N) 34.1 34.5 34.9 35.3 35.6 36.3 36.8 36.9 36.7 36.2 35.7 36.9 41.3 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 75.6 75.1 74.5 73.7 71.6 68.5 64.7 59.9 53.6 45.2 35.2 27.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 11 14 17 22 30 38 40 36 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 8. 4. -2. -9. -17. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 22. 23. 22. 20. 17. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 34.1 76.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 BONNIE 06/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.29 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 68.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 98.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.9% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 BONNIE 06/02/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 BONNIE 06/02/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 26 28 33 38 42 43 42 40 37 32 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 30 35 39 40 39 37 34 29 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 25 30 34 35 34 32 29 24 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT