* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL922016 06/01/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 33 38 43 46 45 42 39 37 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 29 33 38 43 46 45 42 39 37 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 27 32 37 42 44 43 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 14 10 6 10 10 19 25 33 31 30 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -5 -8 -3 -5 -6 -2 -4 -1 -3 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 209 199 223 265 324 263 281 277 284 280 280 285 286 SST (C) 24.6 24.4 24.2 23.9 23.6 23.4 23.3 23.7 23.4 22.4 21.2 20.4 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 99 97 96 95 93 93 94 98 97 93 89 87 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 82 81 80 80 80 82 86 87 85 83 83 84 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.4 -57.1 -57.4 -57.6 -57.2 -57.9 -57.3 -57.9 -58.0 -58.4 -58.2 -58.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 4 4 6 3 4 2 2 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 60 60 57 56 56 58 61 57 57 51 48 48 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -15 -17 -24 -16 -27 -26 2 34 48 58 60 68 200 MB DIV 6 15 13 29 -4 48 23 26 13 4 9 -13 18 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 1 0 7 -4 13 -15 -11 -16 -29 17 LAND (KM) 98 103 98 72 63 122 279 507 647 826 1066 1270 1738 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 33.7 33.9 34.2 34.6 35.3 36.2 36.9 37.4 37.4 37.1 36.5 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 77.1 76.8 76.5 76.2 75.8 74.6 72.7 69.4 65.3 59.9 53.7 46.2 37.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 7 11 15 19 23 28 33 36 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 5. 9. 13. 15. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 6. 1. -6. -12. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 18. 23. 26. 25. 22. 19. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 33.5 77.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 BONNIE 06/01/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.30 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 85.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 91.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 6.2% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 1.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 BONNIE 06/01/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 BONNIE 06/01/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 27 29 33 38 43 46 45 42 39 37 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 26 30 35 40 43 42 39 36 34 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 25 30 35 38 37 34 31 29 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT