* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL922016 06/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 31 35 41 44 45 44 43 42 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 30 33 39 43 44 43 41 41 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 19 20 23 27 32 37 41 42 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 11 15 17 6 12 17 25 30 33 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -8 -6 -2 -4 -4 -3 -6 -2 -2 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 195 222 219 209 218 285 278 282 273 268 266 274 274 SST (C) 24.5 24.5 24.2 23.9 23.1 22.1 22.3 23.2 23.3 23.0 21.6 19.9 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 98 98 96 95 90 86 87 94 97 96 91 86 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 82 81 80 77 75 77 83 86 88 85 81 78 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.6 -57.9 -57.5 -57.3 -57.7 -57.4 -58.0 -57.6 -58.0 -58.2 -59.1 -59.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -0.4 -0.9 -1.0 -0.3 -0.6 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 6 6 3 5 2 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 57 59 59 60 60 60 58 52 54 54 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 6 7 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -20 -15 -16 -18 -15 -24 0 23 68 56 88 74 200 MB DIV 16 14 8 6 32 -7 42 26 38 26 11 14 21 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 3 3 2 10 -2 0 -36 -21 24 42 LAND (KM) 69 57 40 37 7 5 140 340 528 681 925 1026 1389 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.6 34.0 34.3 34.7 35.4 36.1 36.9 37.5 37.9 38.0 38.3 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 77.8 77.6 77.4 77.1 76.7 75.9 74.3 71.7 67.5 62.2 55.6 47.9 39.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 6 9 14 19 24 28 33 35 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. 0. 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 5. 0. -7. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 21. 24. 25. 24. 23. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 33.4 77.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 BONNIE 06/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.19 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.29 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 83.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 71.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 BONNIE 06/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 BONNIE 06/01/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 28 30 33 39 43 44 43 41 41 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 28 31 37 41 42 41 39 39 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 23 26 32 36 37 36 34 34 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT