* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL922016 05/31/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 37 38 40 40 38 34 28 23 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 33 33 34 36 36 34 30 24 19 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 36 40 43 43 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 16 13 17 19 10 17 25 40 48 49 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -7 -6 -3 -6 -1 -4 -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 182 201 230 231 228 247 253 281 271 272 266 281 280 SST (C) 24.5 24.4 24.1 23.5 22.2 21.2 20.9 22.1 22.3 22.8 22.8 21.4 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 99 98 96 93 86 81 81 87 90 94 95 89 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 83 82 80 75 72 72 76 80 84 86 82 79 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.5 -57.7 -57.9 -57.7 -57.6 -57.8 -57.8 -57.9 -57.6 -57.6 -58.2 -58.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 4 4 6 3 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 59 57 59 59 59 59 56 57 59 57 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 10 -5 -25 -11 -9 -17 -17 -29 -2 34 41 28 21 200 MB DIV 34 7 11 6 23 17 16 21 28 10 7 19 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 4 5 11 4 9 -16 -15 -17 -9 LAND (KM) 65 56 39 14 4 9 126 270 401 554 699 946 1112 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.7 34.1 34.6 35.1 35.9 36.7 37.2 38.0 38.5 38.7 38.2 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 77.9 77.5 77.3 77.0 76.6 75.8 74.4 72.4 69.4 65.4 60.1 54.4 48.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 6 8 10 15 19 22 24 26 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 2. -5. -14. -24. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 15. 13. 9. 3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 33.4 77.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 BONNIE 05/31/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.48 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.56 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.24 0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 87.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 81.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 9.9% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.5% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 BONNIE 05/31/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 BONNIE 05/31/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 33 33 34 36 36 34 30 24 19 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 30 30 31 33 33 31 27 21 16 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 25 25 26 28 28 26 22 16 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT