* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 12/01/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 44 45 46 43 34 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 44 45 46 43 34 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 46 49 49 43 34 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 27 27 30 32 42 73 83 83 76 84 87 87 68 67 70 79 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -4 -2 0 -7 -15 -5 -3 -11 -14 -7 5 7 3 -7 SHEAR DIR 261 264 260 256 253 252 255 256 265 270 258 259 266 271 269 263 272 SST (C) 19.8 19.8 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.4 22.3 22.6 22.6 23.0 22.8 22.0 18.9 18.0 18.9 18.2 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 78 77 77 80 82 85 88 88 88 90 91 88 77 76 78 77 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 69 70 72 74 77 79 78 78 80 82 82 73 73 75 74 73 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -55.8 -56.1 -56.4 -56.7 -56.8 -57.0 -56.9 -56.5 -56.9 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 3.7 4.6 4.6 5.1 5.1 4.7 3.9 3.1 2.7 0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 60 62 61 58 52 44 36 29 30 29 25 20 19 20 21 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 23 22 21 20 16 13 10 8 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 194 188 180 181 179 159 117 82 45 21 18 32 34 53 45 4 -20 200 MB DIV -12 -23 -24 -31 -46 -61 -109 -94 -51 -52 -51 -40 -36 0 -8 0 2 700-850 TADV 4 5 1 2 2 0 -9 -7 -16 -25 -41 -40 -27 -23 3 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 938 1010 1077 1148 1179 1213 1091 926 793 673 491 232 -78 -402 -744 -977 -999 LAT (DEG N) 35.0 35.1 35.3 35.0 34.4 32.4 30.2 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.0 25.0 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.8 22.8 24.6 24.5 23.2 21.9 20.8 19.4 17.6 15.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 7 10 11 12 9 6 6 7 11 15 14 16 17 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 881 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -8. -23. -40. -55. -69. -81. -91.-100.-106.-111.-116. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 9. 4. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -17. -23. -28. -34. -36. -37. -36. -35. -33. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 6. 3. -6. -21. -40. -57. -73. -84. -93.-100.-108.-115.-122. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.0 19.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 12/01/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 9.2% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 12/01/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 44 45 46 43 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 43 44 41 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT