* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 11/30/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 44 46 48 47 40 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 44 46 48 47 40 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 43 46 52 54 49 37 26 17 21 25 26 27 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 23 22 22 27 40 66 88 97 86 78 73 62 69 77 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 -8 -14 -13 -7 -7 -4 -4 -4 -8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 273 273 255 248 245 248 266 268 268 255 251 267 272 262 N/A N/A SST (C) 19.7 19.2 18.9 19.0 19.5 21.1 22.9 22.7 22.1 22.2 20.8 18.1 17.1 24.8 24.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 77 77 77 78 81 86 93 91 88 88 84 78 77 110 111 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 70 70 71 73 75 79 85 83 79 80 79 75 75 108 111 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 -54.4 -54.0 -55.0 -56.1 -56.3 -56.5 -56.8 -56.5 -55.5 -56.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.5 3.6 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.3 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 62 60 56 46 43 41 33 28 31 32 31 30 24 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 25 24 23 21 18 16 12 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 191 172 171 171 176 162 152 139 67 36 14 23 17 -37 -41 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -8 -25 -52 -47 -64 -80 -66 -50 -28 -25 7 -8 -11 -154 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 2 6 -4 -7 -10 -26 -26 -46 -62 -19 -53 -39 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 811 846 957 1128 1330 1321 1067 762 550 359 52 -243 -719 -999 -840 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.4 36.1 36.6 36.6 35.7 32.3 29.3 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.2 27.2 26.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 17.7 18.3 19.7 21.7 23.7 26.0 24.7 21.6 18.9 16.5 13.4 9.0 3.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 14 17 19 18 14 13 11 12 17 23 26 30 31 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -5. -20. -38. -55. -69. -79. -85. -93.-101.-108.-111. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 10. 13. 14. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. 10. 5. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -24. -31. -37. -39. -39. -38. -37. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 7. -0. -14. -35. -54. -70. -80. -85. -92. -99.-106.-112. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.4 17.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 11/30/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.26 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 9.6% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.3% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 11/30/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 44 46 48 47 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 46 45 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 39 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT