* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 11/30/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 49 48 42 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 49 48 42 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 43 46 51 54 51 41 31 21 18 24 26 26 27 27 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 24 24 24 36 56 74 94 88 77 70 64 69 74 84 83 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -5 -2 0 0 -10 -15 0 -3 -2 -10 3 -6 -12 -9 SHEAR DIR 274 288 278 275 257 241 237 255 267 271 263 253 270 277 270 269 268 SST (C) 19.9 19.7 19.1 19.0 19.2 20.9 22.4 22.7 22.3 22.3 21.6 18.4 18.1 17.6 25.3 25.3 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 76 77 77 78 80 85 90 92 89 88 86 77 78 77 112 112 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 69 69 71 72 74 79 82 84 81 79 79 73 75 75 109 110 110 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -55.2 -55.3 -55.0 -54.4 -53.9 -54.1 -55.7 -56.3 -56.1 -56.3 -55.9 -55.7 -56.6 -57.1 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 3.0 3.3 3.4 4.5 3.9 4.4 4.7 3.6 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 58 58 60 57 49 45 44 38 31 32 33 30 24 21 23 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 25 24 24 20 19 16 13 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 199 179 165 172 173 174 155 159 121 68 43 32 34 0 -38 -60 -82 200 MB DIV 0 -4 -7 -30 -60 -45 -50 -78 -71 -17 -34 -31 17 -52 -14 -22 -297 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 2 0 4 0 -7 -16 -24 -40 -40 -50 -20 -8 4 41 LAND (KM) 774 773 826 971 1165 1356 1187 876 614 436 211 -78 -456 -931 -999 -999 -779 LAT (DEG N) 34.9 35.5 36.2 36.7 36.5 33.7 30.2 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.6 27.4 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 17.3 17.3 18.1 19.9 22.1 25.5 25.6 22.9 19.8 17.4 15.0 11.7 7.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 12 16 18 19 15 14 12 10 13 17 23 24 23 24 26 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -4. -16. -34. -51. -65. -75. -81. -90. -97.-105.-111. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 15. 13. 9. 5. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -22. -29. -34. -39. -39. -37. -36. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 8. 2. -10. -27. -47. -63. -75. -80. -89. -98.-106.-112. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.9 17.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 11/30/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.27 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 9.5% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 11/30/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 47 49 48 42 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 46 45 39 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 40 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT