* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 11/30/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 51 53 52 48 39 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 51 53 52 48 39 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 49 51 54 57 58 51 39 26 17 24 26 26 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 20 24 27 25 31 43 72 87 98 93 81 69 63 65 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 -5 -3 -4 -3 1 -8 -15 -11 -8 -5 -8 -3 -7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 277 291 287 286 252 237 238 256 268 267 250 256 263 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 20.2 20.3 20.3 19.2 18.6 18.9 20.9 23.4 22.9 22.5 21.5 18.2 17.6 24.2 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 79 78 80 78 78 80 86 97 94 91 87 78 78 105 106 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 70 72 72 72 75 80 89 88 84 80 74 75 102 105 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.6 -54.9 -55.5 -55.8 -55.6 -54.8 -54.3 -54.8 -55.7 -56.0 -56.3 -56.8 -55.9 -54.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.3 4.3 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.7 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 56 62 61 63 55 44 38 40 34 31 34 38 36 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 25 24 22 20 18 15 11 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 196 199 176 155 159 163 146 150 154 85 43 9 -2 -9 -22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 8 5 2 -18 -50 -67 -91 -72 -25 -28 -12 2 8 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 0 2 3 -2 -3 -12 -24 -34 -46 -44 -35 -65 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 742 684 695 733 862 1312 1402 1157 748 440 188 -78 -510 -908 -734 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.0 34.8 36.0 36.9 36.2 32.4 28.6 27.4 28.1 28.5 28.0 27.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 17.4 16.7 16.4 17.0 18.7 23.7 26.9 26.1 22.1 18.2 14.8 10.6 5.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 10 14 17 23 22 18 19 16 16 21 26 29 33 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -13. -28. -45. -61. -72. -78. -85. -91. -96.-100. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 16. 16. 15. 11. 5. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -20. -26. -32. -37. -38. -37. -36. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 7. 3. -6. -22. -42. -62. -77. -84. -90. -97.-103.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.9 17.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 11/30/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 11/30/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 51 53 52 48 39 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 47 48 50 49 45 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 44 43 39 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 36 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT