* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 11/30/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 54 54 52 46 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 54 54 52 46 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 51 54 57 60 56 45 30 24 26 26 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 19 22 27 30 24 32 59 78 99 104 89 85 81 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -6 -5 -4 -4 -1 0 -11 -13 -12 -12 -11 -7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 264 280 286 289 265 241 232 253 270 266 262 266 262 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.6 20.7 20.6 20.5 19.4 18.9 20.6 22.3 22.9 22.5 20.9 17.9 17.8 23.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 82 81 81 81 79 79 85 92 95 93 86 80 81 106 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 73 73 74 73 74 80 85 89 87 82 77 80 106 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -55.1 -55.4 -55.6 -55.2 -54.7 -54.4 -55.7 -56.4 -56.5 -56.6 -56.4 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 4.1 4.3 3.9 3.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 58 60 62 65 60 48 39 37 36 32 32 37 44 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 27 26 25 24 21 20 18 13 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 200 189 201 178 156 164 162 152 165 124 58 0 14 0 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -14 12 4 0 -43 -51 -58 -56 -50 -15 1 9 31 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 3 0 0 -3 0 0 -10 -19 -32 -45 -23 20 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 843 735 655 656 695 1021 1380 1235 824 426 59 -278 -827 -615 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 33.2 33.4 34.5 35.8 37.0 34.5 30.1 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.0 27.8 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 18.5 17.6 16.6 16.1 16.5 20.6 25.3 26.2 22.8 18.1 13.4 7.6 0.2 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 8 9 12 14 20 23 20 20 20 22 30 36 39 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 17 CX,CY: 1/-16 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -10. -23. -39. -57. -70. -79. -90. -97.-102.-105. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. 17. 16. 15. 12. 5. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -21. -29. -34. -36. -35. -34. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 1. -11. -30. -53. -70. -79. -87. -94.-102.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.0 18.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 11/30/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 12.4% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.6% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 11/30/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 53 54 54 52 46 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 51 51 49 43 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 45 45 43 37 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 36 34 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT