* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 11/29/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 52 54 55 55 53 43 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 52 54 55 55 53 43 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 49 51 54 57 61 61 52 37 24 25 26 26 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 19 19 21 26 25 27 45 71 96 103 87 82 86 72 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 -5 -6 -5 -1 1 -8 -18 -14 -6 -7 -13 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 262 260 279 288 278 247 240 248 267 266 262 265 265 266 N/A N/A SST (C) 19.9 20.7 20.8 20.5 20.3 18.7 19.7 21.6 22.8 22.5 21.7 18.8 17.5 23.8 23.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 82 82 81 81 81 78 82 88 94 92 88 80 80 105 104 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 76 75 73 73 74 73 77 82 87 85 82 77 78 105 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 -55.5 -55.1 -54.6 -54.3 -55.0 -56.3 -56.6 -56.7 -56.8 -56.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.6 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.4 4.1 4.5 4.0 4.1 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 51 58 62 64 63 54 43 40 42 36 35 38 44 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 26 28 27 25 23 22 20 17 11 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 214 199 192 200 169 162 170 153 169 147 95 24 10 -12 20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -4 -11 8 7 -20 -45 -65 -54 -49 -41 1 17 16 -243 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 2 3 0 0 6 -2 -6 -12 -35 -35 -8 -36 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 925 812 706 647 685 896 1347 1286 933 542 259 14 -588 -773 -304 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.9 33.4 33.0 33.7 34.9 36.9 35.5 31.4 28.5 28.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 19.1 18.6 17.4 16.4 16.2 19.1 24.1 26.1 23.6 19.2 15.2 10.5 3.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 12 9 11 12 19 22 20 19 18 18 25 33 39 38 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 22 CX,CY: 0/-21 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -6. -17. -32. -50. -62. -72. -83. -91. -95. -98. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. 16. 12. 5. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -24. -31. -35. -35. -34. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. -2. -18. -40. -58. -70. -80. -88. -97.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.9 19.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 11/29/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 12.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 11/29/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 49 52 54 55 55 53 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 52 53 53 51 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 46 47 47 45 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 38 38 36 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT