* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 11/29/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 60 61 60 61 58 51 39 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 60 61 60 61 58 51 39 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 58 59 60 60 60 63 64 62 50 34 25 26 27 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 18 18 22 27 21 29 60 76 103 98 81 74 67 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -2 -1 -4 -5 -2 -1 -4 -10 -20 -12 -6 -3 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 292 269 265 272 278 255 244 237 255 270 261 258 261 260 N/A N/A SST (C) 18.8 19.8 20.8 20.7 20.4 19.6 19.1 20.8 22.3 22.9 22.6 21.5 17.9 23.9 23.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 79 81 82 81 80 79 80 85 91 94 93 89 81 106 104 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 75 75 73 72 72 74 79 84 88 87 84 79 106 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.8 -55.3 -55.2 -54.9 -54.5 -55.8 -56.7 -56.7 -56.3 -55.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.2 4.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 1 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 50 55 59 66 60 49 41 37 38 34 36 43 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 26 27 25 24 21 20 17 13 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 213 211 209 195 196 154 168 164 150 157 120 60 34 63 25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -39 -29 -9 -10 -4 -5 -37 -49 -60 -64 -76 -62 1 49 -205 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -2 0 7 2 8 6 -4 -11 -21 -42 -53 -84 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 950 993 875 765 706 779 1088 1354 1235 852 478 122 -259 -785 -310 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.1 35.1 33.7 33.2 33.6 35.6 36.5 34.0 30.1 27.9 28.0 28.2 27.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 19.8 19.8 19.2 18.1 17.1 17.4 21.2 25.3 26.2 23.0 18.7 14.2 7.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 17 12 9 9 12 19 21 18 19 20 22 34 43 44 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 21 CX,CY: -3/-20 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -12. -23. -38. -51. -59. -66. -72. -76. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 19. 17. 16. 15. 14. 9. 2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -21. -29. -34. -34. -33. -32. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. 3. -4. -16. -34. -52. -65. -74. -82. -89. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 37.1 19.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 11/29/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 11/29/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 58 60 61 60 61 58 51 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 56 58 59 58 59 56 49 37 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 54 53 54 51 44 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 45 46 43 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT