* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 11/29/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 58 59 59 58 58 51 41 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 58 59 59 58 58 51 41 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 58 59 59 59 61 63 62 55 41 27 25 26 27 N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 17 19 18 22 24 26 46 69 89 97 77 73 78 71 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 4 0 -2 0 -5 -3 -2 0 -9 -15 -15 0 -2 -3 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 354 312 293 272 269 273 261 252 248 248 269 266 259 259 264 259 N/A SST (C) 17.8 18.8 19.6 20.6 20.3 19.8 19.2 20.3 21.6 22.6 22.5 22.4 20.8 17.9 24.1 23.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 77 79 80 81 78 77 78 83 87 91 91 91 86 81 107 105 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 72 74 73 73 70 70 72 76 79 82 83 83 82 79 107 105 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -55.1 -56.6 -56.6 -56.2 -55.6 -55.1 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.8 4.6 4.5 3.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 47 48 51 55 61 62 58 48 42 42 33 32 35 37 48 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 27 26 26 24 23 20 19 16 10 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 194 215 215 200 201 179 177 178 165 157 133 67 28 22 35 37 N/A 200 MB DIV -34 -36 -27 -8 -6 0 -13 -37 -74 -67 -79 -87 -21 13 33 -298 N/A 700-850 TADV 30 -2 -8 -2 0 2 2 0 -9 -5 -16 -38 -45 -56 -89 -64 N/A LAND (KM) 864 935 963 854 777 808 1007 1265 1229 993 693 420 45 -370 -909 -390 N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.1 37.0 35.2 34.1 33.9 35.1 36.0 34.8 31.8 29.4 28.8 28.7 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 19.2 19.6 19.4 18.6 17.8 17.6 20.1 23.6 25.2 23.8 20.7 17.5 13.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 15 9 5 8 14 17 14 13 14 15 23 34 45 46 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 21 CX,CY: -3/-20 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -19. -21. -23. -25. -25. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -8. -18. -30. -43. -53. -60. -67. -74. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 18. 16. 15. 13. 8. 1. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -3. -5. -10. -14. -18. -27. -33. -34. -33. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. -4. -14. -28. -46. -60. -72. -82. -90. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 39.1 19.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 11/29/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 11/29/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 58 59 59 58 58 51 41 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 55 57 58 58 57 57 50 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 54 54 53 53 46 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 46 45 45 38 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT