* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 11/28/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 61 60 60 58 55 50 42 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 61 60 60 58 55 50 42 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 62 62 60 58 57 59 60 60 53 41 29 23 25 26 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 12 15 20 19 24 26 33 41 61 87 94 82 62 56 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 15 13 2 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 -7 -14 -14 -8 -2 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 124 14 346 308 300 280 261 252 251 250 262 268 266 265 257 277 275 SST (C) 15.8 16.6 17.8 18.6 19.4 19.8 19.8 20.1 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.1 21.9 21.1 18.3 18.1 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 74 75 77 77 77 74 77 78 82 84 86 87 86 84 75 76 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 70 71 72 72 70 65 69 71 74 75 78 79 78 77 71 72 73 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -56.3 -56.8 -56.3 -56.0 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 3.9 3.5 3.6 4.6 4.9 4.8 4.0 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 54 53 51 51 55 56 56 59 55 49 46 37 30 32 31 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 28 28 28 28 28 25 24 22 20 18 12 8 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 183 192 196 217 215 204 201 200 187 194 175 155 99 56 42 37 9 200 MB DIV -28 -31 -30 -37 -16 -5 -12 -20 -36 -51 -56 -47 -79 -42 7 23 5 700-850 TADV 78 76 22 -4 -6 -1 3 3 -1 -3 -9 -19 -38 -45 -34 -21 -26 LAND (KM) 722 796 831 862 858 807 912 1031 1055 975 768 553 328 101 -100 -391 -747 LAT (DEG N) 43.2 41.0 38.8 36.9 35.6 34.9 35.0 34.6 33.4 31.6 30.2 29.7 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.0 18.4 18.8 18.7 18.3 17.7 18.9 20.5 22.0 22.2 20.7 18.3 15.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 22 21 16 10 1 6 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 22 CX,CY: 2/-21 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. -26. -28. -29. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -18. -29. -40. -50. -56. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 19. 20. 20. 18. 17. 14. 8. -0. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -25. -29. -32. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 12. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 0. -5. -13. -26. -44. -59. -73. -83. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 43.2 18.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 11/28/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 11/28/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 59 61 61 60 60 58 55 50 42 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 56 58 58 57 57 55 52 47 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 53 52 52 50 47 42 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 44 44 42 39 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT