* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 11/28/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 63 66 69 70 69 66 59 51 35 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 63 66 69 70 69 66 59 51 35 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 56 60 63 65 67 66 65 64 67 69 64 50 33 27 27 27 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 6 14 14 15 15 21 27 23 27 60 81 101 103 77 61 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 25 16 12 12 0 -3 -6 -6 -3 -2 -7 -8 -18 -13 -7 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 175 121 356 342 308 259 278 281 264 255 245 251 266 265 261 261 264 SST (C) 14.6 14.7 16.7 17.3 19.0 20.7 20.6 19.5 19.6 21.0 22.9 23.2 21.9 18.9 17.9 17.6 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 70 71 76 78 81 82 81 79 81 86 94 97 90 79 77 77 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 67 68 72 74 76 75 73 72 75 80 88 91 85 75 73 73 97 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.3 -55.6 -55.4 -55.1 -54.3 -54.3 -55.0 -55.6 -55.6 -54.9 -54.5 -55.3 -56.6 -57.2 -57.5 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) 4.7 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.3 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.4 4.7 4.2 3.6 2.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 58 55 51 46 51 64 66 58 49 38 38 45 39 35 38 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 28 28 27 30 29 27 25 22 20 17 14 10 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 168 176 172 171 204 195 197 169 174 162 142 192 153 100 57 41 -30 200 MB DIV -10 -36 -40 -44 -51 -16 6 3 -44 -68 -76 -30 -35 -9 30 26 34 700-850 TADV 44 93 72 17 -9 0 3 0 3 0 -4 -14 -23 -38 -31 -11 -12 LAND (KM) 680 701 827 949 1022 817 644 758 1116 1291 1093 651 261 18 -316 -745 -877 LAT (DEG N) 45.3 43.9 42.0 39.4 36.7 33.3 33.6 35.7 35.9 33.2 29.3 27.4 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 17.0 17.7 19.1 20.2 20.5 18.8 16.4 17.2 21.3 25.0 25.0 21.0 16.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 24 27 24 13 10 13 19 21 19 22 21 19 20 22 25 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 17 CX,CY: 1/-16 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -19. -20. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -1. -4. -11. -22. -35. -49. -59. -64. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 17. 21. 23. 23. 20. 18. 16. 10. 2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 1. -2. -7. -11. -15. -20. -25. -28. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 16. 19. 20. 19. 16. 9. 1. -15. -32. -51. -67. -76. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 45.3 17.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 11/28/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 11/28/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 60 63 66 69 70 69 66 59 51 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 54 57 60 63 64 63 60 53 45 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 55 56 55 52 45 37 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 46 47 46 43 36 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT