* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 11/28/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 44 46 52 56 53 51 46 34 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 44 46 52 56 53 51 46 34 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 44 50 54 54 55 57 57 51 39 26 26 27 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 16 6 12 17 23 16 28 32 28 35 62 83 103 106 71 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 14 13 8 9 1 -3 -4 -2 -1 -3 -5 -9 -16 -17 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 208 179 114 350 332 309 282 267 275 281 268 249 247 261 263 261 275 SST (C) 15.3 16.1 16.8 17.5 17.7 18.2 20.2 20.9 20.1 19.6 21.0 22.7 23.1 22.5 18.8 18.1 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 71 72 71 71 73 76 81 81 79 80 86 93 96 93 79 77 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 68 67 66 66 67 71 73 73 71 74 79 87 90 88 76 74 72 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -55.3 -55.8 -55.7 -55.2 -55.1 -55.6 -56.2 -56.7 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 2.7 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.8 3.4 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 3.7 3.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 53 56 57 59 61 54 53 57 64 61 52 37 33 37 33 33 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 26 28 28 28 29 28 25 24 21 18 16 12 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 160 177 203 225 214 204 221 210 159 165 172 119 145 122 93 55 27 200 MB DIV 9 -5 -11 -17 -27 -19 -11 0 0 -15 -57 -90 -56 -45 -11 24 35 700-850 TADV -9 36 57 37 18 -1 0 2 1 1 -6 -11 -13 -29 -63 -32 -15 LAND (KM) 723 679 626 584 616 810 979 788 765 1019 1224 1125 738 285 -91 -349 -696 LAT (DEG N) 43.6 42.1 41.0 40.3 39.6 37.5 34.7 33.1 34.3 35.5 33.7 29.8 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.0 17.3 16.3 15.9 16.3 18.3 19.8 18.6 17.5 20.1 23.9 25.1 22.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 10 7 9 15 13 8 9 16 19 19 21 21 21 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 19 CX,CY: 2/-18 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 1004 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 3. -3. -8. -15. -24. -37. -53. -70. -79. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 19. 22. 23. 22. 19. 16. 9. 0. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 1. -1. -5. -10. -14. -18. -23. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -5. -4. -4. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 14. 16. 22. 26. 23. 21. 16. 4. -10. -29. -52. -69. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 43.6 18.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 11/28/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.08 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 13.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.5% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 11/28/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 44 46 52 56 53 51 46 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 40 42 48 52 49 47 42 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 33 35 41 45 42 40 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 30 34 31 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT