* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 11/28/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 48 50 56 60 59 53 49 38 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 48 50 56 60 59 53 49 38 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 47 52 54 55 54 55 53 48 41 31 26 26 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 16 8 13 17 18 21 34 34 38 56 70 78 76 72 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 24 23 22 18 15 1 -3 -5 -3 -3 -1 -6 -5 -10 -5 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 212 198 176 104 360 306 284 276 258 250 255 255 257 267 271 277 271 SST (C) 14.3 14.7 14.9 16.1 17.0 18.5 19.8 19.9 20.7 20.8 21.1 21.7 22.1 21.8 19.9 18.0 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 69 68 68 72 75 76 76 76 79 79 81 85 88 87 81 77 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 66 64 64 68 71 70 68 68 70 70 73 76 79 79 76 74 74 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.6 -56.2 -56.8 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) 2.2 3.2 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.3 3.7 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.4 2.5 0.9 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 54 56 62 58 55 53 54 55 58 60 59 54 48 46 41 33 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 22 26 28 28 29 30 29 27 25 23 21 18 15 11 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 160 159 178 195 192 217 197 195 207 185 190 185 152 125 116 53 8 200 MB DIV 11 7 0 -19 -32 -34 -17 -23 -26 -27 -38 -56 -36 -56 -61 -1 39 700-850 TADV -23 -1 56 82 78 -2 -1 0 0 1 -1 -6 -8 -16 -21 -44 -13 LAND (KM) 768 693 650 689 762 803 814 857 919 922 896 783 566 301 74 -301 -777 LAT (DEG N) 45.5 44.4 43.6 42.4 40.6 36.9 35.3 34.9 34.2 33.7 32.7 31.3 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.1 17.5 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.0 17.7 18.3 19.3 19.9 20.5 20.1 18.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 10 10 15 20 13 4 5 5 4 7 8 11 13 18 21 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 19 CX,CY: 2/-18 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 1027 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. -1. -7. -14. -23. -34. -47. -59. -68. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 22. 20. 17. 10. -0. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 12. 11. 8. 5. 2. -2. -6. -10. -15. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -5. -4. -4. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 18. 20. 26. 30. 29. 23. 19. 8. -4. -19. -38. -60. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 45.5 18.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 11/28/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.08 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 13.8% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.7% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 11/28/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 45 48 50 56 60 59 53 49 38 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 34 40 43 45 51 55 54 48 44 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 35 37 43 47 46 40 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 25 31 35 34 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT