* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 09/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 48 58 63 69 66 62 55 53 52 53 54 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 48 58 63 69 66 62 55 53 52 53 54 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 41 44 47 48 47 45 42 40 41 44 48 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 10 13 12 15 17 12 19 14 19 15 13 10 7 9 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 0 3 3 -2 -1 -6 0 -4 0 -3 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 116 208 211 206 205 211 201 233 231 243 231 228 190 209 168 214 216 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 169 169 169 168 167 166 168 166 162 159 157 154 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 156 156 153 150 148 142 140 139 141 139 134 132 131 129 127 129 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 7 6 7 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 4 4 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 78 77 80 79 76 66 58 50 52 58 67 64 62 60 60 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 10 11 11 16 16 18 14 12 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 40 33 35 39 30 54 25 41 17 28 7 13 -11 6 0 6 200 MB DIV 55 58 53 65 57 38 41 32 46 44 23 26 35 24 21 44 36 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 0 1 0 3 19 13 17 9 6 3 -1 2 0 2 LAND (KM) 256 299 347 372 363 377 409 351 270 233 214 168 144 109 80 81 90 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 3 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 70 83 88 85 85 82 65 51 58 75 65 49 39 32 31 32 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 7. 8. 10. 5. 1. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 28. 33. 39. 36. 32. 25. 23. 22. 23. 24. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.2 94.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 09/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 82.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.54 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 8.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.93 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.86 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 28.3% 15.8% 11.7% 10.8% 12.2% 13.6% 20.9% Logistic: 7.7% 31.5% 17.2% 12.3% 5.6% 15.6% 12.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 8.5% 1.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.1% Consensus: 5.4% 22.7% 11.6% 8.6% 5.6% 9.6% 8.9% 7.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 09/17/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 09/17/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 43 48 58 63 69 66 62 55 53 52 53 54 56 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 45 55 60 66 63 59 52 50 49 50 51 53 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 39 49 54 60 57 53 46 44 43 44 45 47 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 39 44 50 47 43 36 34 33 34 35 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT