* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 09/17/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 45 52 58 64 66 66 62 60 58 58 57 59 60 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 45 52 58 64 66 66 62 60 58 58 57 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 49 52 55 55 55 55 53 51 49 49 51 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 9 11 8 15 12 14 19 17 16 18 18 10 6 8 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -1 -1 7 0 4 -5 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 11 96 211 214 214 206 222 244 255 240 248 228 240 228 257 216 233 SST (C) 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.4 30.3 30.2 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 168 169 170 169 169 160 167 169 166 167 165 157 149 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 155 157 157 160 155 148 146 134 143 145 139 139 141 134 125 130 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 6 7 4 6 2 4 2 4 1 6 4 8 5 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 79 78 71 64 55 51 50 53 55 52 50 50 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 9 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 40 42 36 29 42 39 38 21 27 19 37 11 29 5 21 -5 200 MB DIV 35 52 57 48 49 47 35 33 19 28 26 40 14 22 0 16 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 2 1 13 1 10 6 6 3 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 269 292 322 348 378 428 466 389 293 323 290 220 226 163 78 50 51 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 4 4 3 5 5 2 2 4 4 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 72 80 84 89 90 88 89 66 39 47 67 67 68 52 32 27 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 15. 22. 28. 34. 36. 36. 32. 30. 28. 28. 27. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.6 94.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 09/17/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 83.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.55 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.88 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 47.8% 32.2% 12.8% 12.1% 14.8% 34.1% 50.9% Logistic: 20.2% 59.6% 39.5% 19.0% 10.9% 36.5% 39.5% 8.3% Bayesian: 5.1% 33.0% 8.5% 3.4% 1.5% 6.1% 6.7% 3.5% Consensus: 11.8% 46.8% 26.7% 11.7% 8.2% 19.1% 26.8% 20.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 09/17/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 09/17/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 40 45 52 58 64 66 66 62 60 58 58 57 59 60 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 40 47 53 59 61 61 57 55 53 53 52 54 55 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 34 41 47 53 55 55 51 49 47 47 46 48 49 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 32 38 44 46 46 42 40 38 38 37 39 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT