* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 09/17/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 52 55 63 62 64 65 67 67 69 72 75 78 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 52 55 63 62 64 65 67 67 55 37 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 48 54 58 61 64 67 68 70 57 38 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 6 7 9 3 5 3 9 5 8 7 5 5 6 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -1 0 -2 5 2 10 0 3 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 76 37 81 225 244 261 239 312 179 136 173 150 164 92 102 91 132 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.4 28.7 28.2 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 168 167 167 167 165 167 167 166 162 155 144 137 136 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 145 146 144 146 145 142 145 145 144 142 137 128 122 120 122 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 10 10 8 9 7 8 6 8 6 7 5 7 5 7 6 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 79 80 76 73 68 65 62 61 61 61 61 63 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 10 9 11 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 25 39 53 53 53 52 54 21 13 -12 -4 -16 -8 17 30 47 200 MB DIV 25 28 46 57 49 53 44 33 21 22 24 28 36 6 14 11 39 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 2 1 6 3 10 0 6 5 7 6 6 6 3 2 LAND (KM) 214 201 204 207 219 227 236 244 241 208 166 114 57 -19 -126 -202 -259 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.2 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.2 22.2 22.1 22.0 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.9 95.1 95.2 95.2 95.1 95.1 95.0 94.9 94.9 95.2 95.6 96.1 96.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 0 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 57 53 52 53 57 60 62 65 64 54 46 39 29 20 9 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 1. 3. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 25. 33. 32. 34. 35. 37. 37. 39. 42. 45. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.1 94.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 09/17/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 57% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 20.9% 14.8% 10.6% 9.4% 12.4% 26.2% 57.3% Logistic: 12.8% 52.5% 35.8% 20.1% 11.1% 35.7% 49.9% 67.4% Bayesian: 3.2% 18.5% 6.7% 2.1% 1.3% 8.0% 7.0% 57.0% Consensus: 7.6% 30.7% 19.1% 10.9% 7.3% 18.7% 27.7% 60.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 09/17/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 09/17/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 43 52 55 63 62 64 65 67 67 55 37 30 28 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 39 48 51 59 58 60 61 63 63 51 33 26 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 42 45 53 52 54 55 57 57 45 27 20 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 36 44 43 45 46 48 48 36 18 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT