* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 09/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 35 47 53 64 67 70 66 64 59 55 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 35 47 53 64 67 70 66 64 59 55 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 37 40 43 45 45 42 39 36 33 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 4 5 3 5 15 13 14 13 17 14 18 19 23 25 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 -1 -3 0 0 1 3 8 2 1 -3 0 -2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 76 149 197 243 183 234 207 231 281 249 261 252 252 251 248 262 257 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 169 159 151 143 140 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 152 152 152 152 154 150 150 151 148 147 147 136 128 120 117 121 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 7 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 5 700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 77 78 77 73 66 61 52 48 46 46 42 42 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 5 7 6 6 12 11 16 15 15 11 10 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 11 17 20 37 50 36 45 44 81 72 80 46 60 1 0 -21 -24 200 MB DIV 12 21 48 31 46 38 51 50 58 21 42 14 6 2 0 -13 2 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 -3 1 0 0 9 20 15 15 8 6 -1 -2 -9 LAND (KM) 263 270 286 296 308 367 391 422 456 446 442 360 238 116 29 19 95 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.8 23.4 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.7 25.2 25.9 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.6 94.6 94.5 94.5 94.5 94.2 93.9 93.4 92.8 92.0 91.5 91.1 91.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 2 4 4 3 5 6 6 5 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 71 74 77 77 78 82 83 85 87 89 81 69 41 26 23 24 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 40. 41. 42. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -3. -6. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. 5. 4. 10. 9. 9. 2. -0. -5. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 22. 28. 39. 42. 45. 41. 39. 34. 30. 28. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.5 94.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 09/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.50 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.88 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 25.2% 15.6% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 23.7% 11.9% 3.7% 1.4% 11.3% 31.7% 30.3% Bayesian: 1.1% 4.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 2.1% Consensus: 4.5% 17.9% 9.7% 5.2% 0.6% 3.9% 15.6% 10.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 09/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 09/16/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 32 35 47 53 64 67 70 66 64 59 55 52 51 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 33 45 51 62 65 68 64 62 57 53 50 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 29 41 47 58 61 64 60 58 53 49 46 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 32 38 49 52 55 51 49 44 40 37 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT