* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 09/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 37 45 54 59 63 62 63 65 68 70 74 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 37 45 54 59 63 62 63 65 45 33 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 39 46 52 56 60 59 60 60 43 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 4 1 2 10 8 6 4 7 9 15 6 11 7 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 1 0 -3 2 -1 6 0 5 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 58 71 110 112 51 225 289 260 286 205 227 168 146 138 117 114 54 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.2 28.3 28.0 28.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 164 163 163 165 165 166 165 165 164 161 152 138 134 139 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 142 143 142 140 143 142 142 143 143 143 142 136 123 121 126 133 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 12 9 8 11 7 10 6 9 5 9 5 9 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 77 79 79 81 75 73 67 63 63 61 61 63 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 5 3 5 6 6 8 10 10 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 5 12 17 26 45 51 66 47 42 0 -12 -25 -7 2 14 18 200 MB DIV 15 8 20 36 29 53 43 43 41 31 19 25 13 21 -4 1 15 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 0 4 0 6 1 10 6 8 8 7 5 5 2 LAND (KM) 170 154 156 157 145 146 151 168 179 176 162 107 28 -58 -146 -230 -116 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.2 21.9 21.7 21.3 20.8 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.5 95.6 95.7 95.8 95.8 95.8 95.7 95.5 95.5 95.6 95.9 96.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 2 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 51 46 44 44 43 44 46 49 49 48 45 40 29 15 12 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 11. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -1. -2. -0. 1. 0. 1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 29. 34. 38. 37. 38. 40. 43. 45. 49. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.8 95.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 09/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.85 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 33.8% 20.8% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 27.7% 0.0% Logistic: 11.2% 48.8% 34.6% 8.1% 3.2% 24.3% 47.8% 63.8% Bayesian: 1.7% 14.5% 4.3% 0.7% 0.3% 4.8% 6.4% 60.6% Consensus: 6.9% 32.4% 19.9% 6.8% 1.2% 9.7% 27.3% 41.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 09/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 09/16/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 33 37 45 54 59 63 62 63 65 45 33 29 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 34 42 51 56 60 59 60 62 42 30 26 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 38 47 52 56 55 56 58 38 26 22 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 30 39 44 48 47 48 50 30 18 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT