* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 09/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 29 34 40 52 55 62 63 65 66 69 72 75 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 29 34 40 52 55 62 63 39 31 28 27 27 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 31 36 42 46 50 53 36 29 28 27 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 6 3 5 11 5 3 5 12 12 9 6 3 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 3 3 3 -4 -3 -2 -4 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 97 61 73 96 90 33 254 314 231 270 170 150 176 121 61 42 66 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.0 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 166 166 164 166 165 165 163 157 148 143 143 146 150 149 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 145 145 143 145 143 142 141 137 130 127 128 132 136 137 159 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 10 12 9 10 8 9 7 9 6 8 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 78 76 75 79 80 82 79 78 72 70 67 69 65 68 66 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 4 3 4 5 6 10 8 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 12 5 14 23 43 51 58 53 48 21 4 -8 9 24 14 11 200 MB DIV 34 14 19 22 36 34 61 43 44 19 33 23 26 12 6 19 28 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 0 2 0 2 5 4 10 7 7 8 5 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 171 162 150 152 140 144 124 109 85 43 0 -89 -198 -309 -203 -135 29 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.5 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.3 21.6 21.9 21.8 21.5 21.3 21.0 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.1 95.3 95.4 95.6 95.8 96.0 96.2 96.4 96.8 97.4 98.2 99.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 67 65 59 56 50 47 45 44 40 32 24 19 3 10 15 15 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 37. 38. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 11. 11. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 3. 0. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 27. 30. 37. 38. 40. 41. 44. 47. 50. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.5 95.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 09/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 16.2% 11.7% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 7.8% 3.5% 1.2% 0.5% 5.6% 19.7% 43.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.8% 13.5% Consensus: 2.2% 8.5% 5.2% 3.4% 0.2% 2.1% 10.8% 19.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 09/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 09/16/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 29 34 40 52 55 62 63 39 31 28 27 27 31 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 27 32 38 50 53 60 61 37 29 26 25 25 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 24 29 35 47 50 57 58 34 26 23 22 22 26 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 29 41 44 51 52 28 20 17 16 16 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT