* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 08/31/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 31 30 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 29 31 30 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 22 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 16 19 26 31 42 37 40 42 39 34 29 22 22 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 -1 -2 -2 -6 -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 311 277 279 287 293 321 348 359 18 34 34 41 36 27 14 2 356 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 28.9 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.3 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 163 151 139 136 136 141 151 148 150 150 152 155 155 161 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 139 128 118 113 114 119 126 121 123 125 126 129 130 135 132 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 72 73 72 72 61 55 60 65 66 66 67 68 68 64 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 5 6 5 3 2 2 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -9 -17 -43 -29 -46 -63 -89 -87 -53 -61 -51 -48 -36 -24 -45 -54 200 MB DIV 13 37 35 0 -9 -15 -8 9 -8 -9 0 1 10 40 8 -10 1 700-850 TADV 0 9 20 11 6 13 15 12 17 9 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 246 219 212 240 290 482 667 827 1011 1183 1256 1168 1054 955 861 763 641 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.4 33.1 33.7 34.3 34.9 35.1 35.0 34.1 32.8 31.9 31.4 31.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.4 76.5 75.4 74.2 73.0 70.5 68.4 65.8 63.6 62.6 62.9 64.2 65.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 9 9 11 9 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 89 66 73 58 29 24 28 27 33 31 27 26 25 28 31 35 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 4. -3. -11. -20. -28. -35. -39. -44. -46. -45. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -8. -8. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 5. 2. -1. -6. -16. -22. -24. -27. -28. -25. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.6 77.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 08/31/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 15.0% 11.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 8.2% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.7% 5.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 08/31/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 08/31/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 29 31 30 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 27 29 28 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT