* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 08/31/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 37 38 36 33 29 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 37 38 36 33 29 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 27 26 25 23 20 17 16 16 16 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 3 9 12 22 33 38 38 39 36 35 28 22 10 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 0 -2 -3 -5 -7 -3 -1 -1 -1 -5 -5 -5 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 355 360 325 302 309 322 344 3 13 30 40 51 54 61 37 16 349 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.5 29.6 30.0 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 159 159 155 150 149 148 152 151 146 148 150 160 162 170 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 136 135 131 125 122 124 127 125 120 122 126 137 142 151 145 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 65 67 71 71 69 67 57 61 63 68 65 64 62 63 61 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 7 6 5 6 3 2 2 4 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -40 -14 -22 -48 -34 -57 -74 -95 -61 -67 -84 -75 -67 -62 -37 -58 200 MB DIV -4 12 41 30 4 8 -42 18 -18 6 -6 0 -2 9 2 7 7 700-850 TADV 1 0 10 15 11 15 9 17 13 15 5 2 0 0 -5 -3 -8 LAND (KM) 291 325 327 331 313 379 507 658 874 1053 1194 1219 1156 1067 960 813 669 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.7 31.3 31.9 32.5 33.5 33.9 34.3 34.2 33.3 32.3 31.4 30.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.3 77.3 76.4 75.4 74.5 72.5 70.6 68.7 66.3 64.4 63.4 63.6 64.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 10 10 8 5 5 7 9 11 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 68 70 72 55 36 31 25 23 32 34 30 26 24 30 35 42 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 2. -5. -12. -19. -25. -29. -33. -34. -32. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. 0. -2. -5. -6. -5. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 13. 11. 8. 4. 0. -7. -13. -17. -16. -12. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.4 78.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 08/31/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 18.9% 13.7% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 37.5% 25.6% 10.2% 3.4% 9.1% 8.4% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 18.9% 13.1% 6.8% 1.1% 3.0% 6.0% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 08/31/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 08/31/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 31 37 38 36 33 29 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 35 36 34 31 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 30 31 29 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT