* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 07/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 27 33 40 45 49 54 57 60 65 66 69 72 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 8 10 14 10 10 14 6 6 8 9 15 8 18 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -5 0 -7 -3 -7 0 2 0 4 7 11 8 2 1 SHEAR DIR 210 249 234 199 237 338 291 6 337 353 249 277 277 265 246 280 274 SST (C) 29.6 29.1 28.9 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.0 30.1 31.4 31.7 30.2 29.8 23.3 31.1 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 152 149 162 170 170 170 170 168 171 171 172 173 168 95 173 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 131 128 139 145 148 144 144 138 141 164 172 144 136 82 160 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 11 12 11 13 10 12 7 14 7 18 7 19 6 12 700-500 MB RH 55 52 55 57 56 57 57 57 56 56 57 55 52 51 49 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -18 -15 -13 -11 -6 -15 -6 -19 -16 -25 2 -31 -36 -55 -18 -8 200 MB DIV 8 -24 -35 0 0 -15 23 -4 9 12 17 8 6 8 14 -27 31 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 0 1 -9 3 -12 13 -12 14 5 50 13 32 -14 9 LAND (KM) 156 102 23 -51 -125 -285 -440 -602 -738 -898 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -790 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.9 31.0 32.2 33.6 35.0 36.8 38.9 40.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.2 96.0 96.7 97.2 97.7 98.9 99.9 100.9 101.3 102.0 102.0 101.2 98.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 10 12 14 15 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 37 23 20 36 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 5 5 0 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 31. 35. 39. 42. 43. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 34. 37. 40. 45. 47. 49. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 27.4 95.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 07/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.2% 4.2% 2.8% 0.4% 4.1% 2.8% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 07/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 07/21/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 21 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 20 19 20 20 22 25 25 26 26 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 18 21 21 22 22 22 22 23 24 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT