* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 07/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 24 28 35 43 48 52 55 59 63 67 68 70 71 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 21 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP SUBT EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 14 7 8 14 5 16 10 14 5 8 8 11 12 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 1 -4 -5 -2 -4 -6 -5 3 -4 4 0 3 6 4 5 SHEAR DIR 198 216 253 247 204 306 359 339 10 341 4 325 282 269 248 259 265 SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.1 29.5 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 31.5 31.7 31.7 30.5 29.8 23.8 19.1 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 159 153 160 167 169 169 170 170 170 171 172 168 99 79 158 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 137 132 138 142 142 141 141 165 167 168 147 138 85 73 134 136 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -51.5 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 9 11 11 11 10 11 9 13 10 17 10 15 7 12 700-500 MB RH 51 54 51 54 57 55 60 57 54 53 52 47 48 45 45 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -14 -24 -24 -15 -19 -13 -14 -22 -23 -31 -47 -53 -47 -32 -15 22 200 MB DIV 24 -6 -16 -32 -4 16 -6 21 -10 10 9 -5 9 24 6 -20 -35 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -5 -2 0 -12 0 5 0 29 -6 15 4 33 16 1 35 LAND (KM) 164 114 51 -44 -140 -294 -458 -607 -763 -877 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -773 -326 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.4 30.5 31.8 33.1 34.7 36.0 37.6 39.5 41.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.4 95.2 95.9 96.7 97.3 98.3 99.2 99.8 99.9 99.7 99.3 98.4 96.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 7 8 7 8 7 9 12 15 16 18 19 21 HEAT CONTENT 41 28 22 33 6 5 5 5 7 7 7 6 5 0 0 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 31. 35. 39. 42. 42. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 15. 23. 28. 32. 35. 39. 43. 47. 48. 50. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 27.7 94.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 07/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.5% 2.0% 1.3% 0.3% 3.3% 7.9% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 2.7% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 07/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 07/20/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 21 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 20 19 20 19 21 24 24 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 17 20 20 21 21 21 21 22 23 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT