* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 07/20/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 30 37 44 48 52 53 56 58 61 60 62 62 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 24 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 18 17 5 14 15 14 18 17 20 12 9 9 12 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -1 0 -2 1 -5 0 -3 0 -3 4 1 4 9 9 7 SHEAR DIR 215 198 214 260 253 240 6 309 358 330 5 335 3 304 327 334 333 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.7 30.3 30.3 30.9 31.0 31.7 31.7 31.7 30.5 29.8 23.9 20.6 25.0 28.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 163 171 171 170 170 170 171 171 172 167 99 83 108 145 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 140 151 150 156 157 169 171 170 147 134 85 75 94 125 102 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 12 9 8 13 9 14 8 16 6 17 4 11 1 5 3 700-500 MB RH 49 49 52 49 54 56 58 59 58 56 52 50 52 51 56 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -75 -35 -31 -39 -33 -24 -15 -35 -44 -49 -46 -57 -42 -63 -34 -5 41 200 MB DIV 4 17 13 -7 -12 1 -20 10 -28 17 -12 -4 0 13 3 -19 -29 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 0 -7 2 -19 11 -24 28 -13 55 -8 57 29 102 32 LAND (KM) 168 89 6 -83 -181 -356 -506 -655 -810 -965 -999 -999 -999 -999 -920 -446 -24 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.6 30.2 31.6 32.7 34.1 35.6 37.4 39.4 41.4 43.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.5 94.3 95.0 95.8 96.6 97.5 98.5 98.8 99.1 98.8 98.0 96.2 93.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 7 7 7 9 10 12 12 15 16 20 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 36 11 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 0 0 3 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 8. 16. 22. 27. 31. 35. 39. 42. 42. 44. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 17. 24. 28. 32. 33. 36. 38. 41. 40. 42. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 28.2 93.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 07/20/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 8.9% 4.6% 2.3% 0.6% 5.2% 9.3% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 1.7% 3.1% 1.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 07/20/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 07/20/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 20 19 21 20 22 24 24 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 17 19 19 20 20 20 21 22 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT