* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 05/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 40 44 54 57 47 39 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 40 44 54 57 47 39 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 37 42 50 51 45 41 36 30 25 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 13 14 8 5 5 15 34 49 57 72 68 57 54 60 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 6 8 10 8 0 -8 0 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 257 239 226 263 293 230 224 248 237 272 284 283 293 287 283 256 248 SST (C) 25.9 25.9 24.9 24.6 24.7 25.4 23.6 24.5 9.8 13.9 20.4 18.9 20.1 22.8 23.1 23.6 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 113 112 103 100 102 109 98 105 67 69 83 80 83 94 95 97 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 98 90 87 88 95 88 94 65 66 76 75 78 86 87 88 83 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.2 -56.1 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.4 -56.8 -57.9 -58.7 -59.6 -59.3 -59.7 -59.7 -59.7 -58.8 -58.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 5 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 47 49 52 58 68 61 50 53 56 54 50 48 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 13 14 14 14 19 20 17 16 14 11 11 11 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -15 -21 -49 -53 -27 -42 51 18 28 -19 -22 -58 -60 -43 -31 -46 200 MB DIV 13 27 15 -29 -28 14 19 42 32 44 -28 -19 -32 -14 8 13 8 700-850 TADV 10 9 6 6 7 15 15 29 -44 -71 -26 -29 -39 -22 -19 -15 -8 LAND (KM) 75 145 207 255 292 303 161 290 249 368 625 1032 1434 1729 1975 2172 2279 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.8 28.5 29.0 29.6 31.3 33.7 36.9 39.6 40.2 38.9 36.5 33.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.3 78.9 78.5 78.1 77.9 76.9 75.3 72.4 68.9 65.1 61.2 56.9 52.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 7 11 17 20 18 14 19 22 21 19 17 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. -2. -12. -24. -36. -46. -55. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 5. 7. 3. -0. -3. -8. -8. -9. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 24. 27. 17. 9. -2. -15. -21. -26. -30. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.9 79.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 05/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 74.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.25 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 16.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 9.8% 6.4% 0.7% 0.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 8.6% 6.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 05/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 05/16/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 37 40 44 54 57 47 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 37 41 51 54 44 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 33 37 47 50 40 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 29 39 42 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT