* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 05/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 44 54 58 46 39 34 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 44 54 58 46 39 34 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 46 42 38 35 29 24 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 12 14 16 7 6 1 12 33 43 44 51 69 71 67 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 3 1 0 0 4 5 14 11 14 11 9 13 10 9 SHEAR DIR 255 261 243 242 261 262 301 318 260 257 279 290 269 244 233 225 230 SST (C) 26.4 25.9 25.9 25.1 24.7 24.0 23.4 21.2 20.9 19.3 19.1 19.0 20.0 19.6 17.3 15.3 12.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 112 112 105 102 98 95 87 86 81 82 83 86 85 80 77 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 99 99 92 89 86 85 80 80 76 77 80 83 82 77 75 73 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -56.3 -56.4 -56.5 -56.7 -57.4 -58.5 -59.0 -58.6 -58.0 -57.0 -56.3 -56.1 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 51 52 51 50 54 54 61 76 62 59 59 56 53 58 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 13 14 19 23 16 15 15 10 7 8 11 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -31 -13 -16 -32 -24 -62 -33 0 14 -29 -26 -7 -9 -78 -94 -106 200 MB DIV 34 15 14 23 4 -21 18 29 -17 25 -14 -43 -15 17 24 15 32 700-850 TADV 10 12 9 6 8 12 19 27 6 -28 -7 36 8 8 -12 2 -2 LAND (KM) 57 96 157 245 311 438 356 329 495 484 788 1153 1619 2070 1459 760 366 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.6 27.4 28.0 28.6 30.1 31.9 34.5 37.4 39.5 38.8 36.6 34.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.1 78.6 77.9 77.4 76.3 74.8 72.4 68.4 63.2 57.1 49.9 42.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 10 13 20 23 23 27 33 34 34 35 38 42 HEAT CONTENT 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 4. -3. -11. -20. -32. -44. -54. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 1. 6. 10. 1. -2. -2. -9. -13. -11. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 19. 29. 33. 21. 14. 9. -5. -18. -25. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.8 79.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 05/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.11 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 11.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.9% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 5.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 05/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 05/16/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 44 54 58 46 39 34 20 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 33 36 42 52 56 44 37 32 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 31 37 47 51 39 32 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 24 30 40 44 32 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT