* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 05/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 34 37 41 47 51 49 34 32 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 34 37 41 47 51 49 34 32 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 23 22 22 23 25 27 31 36 38 35 32 27 23 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 20 14 15 18 12 7 5 19 41 50 51 51 59 60 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 1 2 1 0 0 2 7 10 9 7 7 -1 4 7 SHEAR DIR 252 248 260 256 254 279 267 294 302 275 288 290 284 269 250 242 240 SST (C) 26.3 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.0 23.5 22.1 20.4 22.3 19.4 19.5 19.6 20.6 19.8 18.3 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 120 117 114 111 105 95 89 84 92 81 83 84 87 84 80 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 105 104 101 98 92 86 82 78 84 76 79 80 83 80 76 73 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 -55.7 -55.8 -56.2 -56.2 -56.6 -56.8 -58.0 -58.7 -58.8 -58.3 -58.4 -58.7 -58.7 -58.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 48 49 50 50 51 54 59 71 73 61 59 59 56 52 45 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 15 14 15 17 19 20 12 15 10 7 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -9 -21 -9 -9 -38 -22 -58 -22 13 7 -13 -17 -24 -36 -96 -121 200 MB DIV 54 46 14 23 10 -8 -10 5 38 10 20 -48 -21 -1 7 7 15 700-850 TADV 7 9 12 10 7 10 11 18 16 -2 -8 3 -8 25 -3 0 -24 LAND (KM) 62 61 94 154 239 420 526 452 577 613 744 1022 1376 1851 1897 1412 811 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.3 25.9 26.7 27.3 28.5 30.1 32.3 35.1 37.7 38.6 37.5 35.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.2 79.7 79.2 78.5 77.7 76.2 74.7 72.6 69.4 65.0 59.3 53.2 46.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 10 9 9 12 16 22 23 23 28 31 30 29 28 28 HEAT CONTENT 4 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 15. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. -3. -12. -20. -30. -39. -47. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. -6. -3. -9. -14. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 12. 16. 22. 26. 24. 9. 7. -5. -14. -16. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.8 80.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 05/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 11.7% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.4% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 05/16/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 05/16/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 29 34 37 41 47 51 49 34 32 20 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 33 36 40 46 50 48 33 31 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 29 32 36 42 46 44 29 27 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 24 28 34 38 36 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT