* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 05/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 34 39 42 47 52 54 44 35 23 21 22 23 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 34 39 42 47 52 54 44 35 23 21 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 22 22 23 24 27 31 35 36 33 28 26 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 20 25 23 13 22 16 9 3 7 31 49 48 39 32 30 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 2 1 0 -1 -1 0 3 4 9 9 9 3 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 262 248 256 274 258 261 303 303 33 276 291 292 292 286 272 261 255 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.7 26.5 26.0 25.2 24.6 22.8 22.0 21.4 17.8 19.5 19.8 20.3 22.2 22.4 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 120 119 114 106 102 92 91 89 77 82 85 86 91 90 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 101 105 105 101 94 91 84 84 82 73 77 81 81 85 82 80 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 -56.0 -56.2 -56.3 -56.8 -57.7 -58.7 -58.4 -58.2 -58.8 -59.8 -59.2 -58.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 46 46 46 49 50 51 55 56 63 79 72 63 61 55 48 41 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 12 13 13 13 14 15 16 18 19 21 18 16 10 8 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 3 12 -1 -18 -1 -29 -8 -67 -33 38 18 -20 -2 -11 -26 -44 -43 200 MB DIV 68 64 37 6 37 -2 -16 8 47 16 29 -15 -26 -29 -32 -21 -15 700-850 TADV 11 9 13 13 8 7 9 16 16 7 15 7 -25 -27 1 -12 0 LAND (KM) 106 74 68 99 157 335 514 489 469 516 439 699 1052 1598 2080 1996 1687 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.7 26.5 27.7 29.1 31.1 34.0 37.6 40.4 40.1 37.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.7 80.3 79.8 79.2 78.5 76.8 75.4 73.6 71.0 67.1 62.2 56.2 49.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 10 10 9 11 15 22 24 23 25 31 28 21 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 10 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. -3. -12. -20. -27. -32. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 17. 18. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 5. 1. -6. -9. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 17. 22. 27. 29. 19. 10. -2. -4. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.2 80.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 05/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.32 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 80.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.19 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 11.5% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.3% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 05/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 05/15/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 31 34 39 42 47 52 54 44 35 23 21 22 23 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 33 38 41 46 51 53 43 34 22 20 21 22 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 28 33 36 41 46 48 38 29 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 25 28 33 38 40 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT