* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 05/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 36 38 42 42 45 48 54 54 46 33 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 36 38 42 42 45 48 54 54 46 33 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 28 29 29 31 34 41 45 42 36 30 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 38 27 19 27 29 20 25 11 12 6 23 47 53 49 58 59 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 5 0 0 0 0 3 0 2 6 4 8 13 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 259 258 251 255 277 253 282 275 302 230 280 287 286 273 254 252 245 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.2 24.6 23.8 21.7 20.1 22.7 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.4 18.5 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 114 118 121 115 102 98 88 84 95 81 83 84 84 81 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 102 100 104 107 102 91 88 82 79 87 76 79 80 80 78 74 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.6 -55.6 -56.1 -56.1 -56.7 -57.2 -58.3 -58.5 -58.4 -58.2 -58.6 -59.0 -59.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 44 43 44 47 49 50 53 61 71 76 59 61 60 57 43 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 15 14 17 16 17 18 22 24 24 19 15 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -8 14 16 2 -10 -2 -22 -12 -52 9 39 49 2 2 -15 -51 -69 200 MB DIV 39 82 71 35 10 24 -3 15 9 14 -1 12 -8 -11 1 -4 -7 700-850 TADV 15 16 9 12 16 5 8 6 20 13 -11 -27 -20 -27 -10 -16 -18 LAND (KM) 70 108 73 64 89 253 433 626 568 715 686 863 1136 1530 2021 1542 956 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.1 24.5 24.9 25.5 26.7 27.8 29.5 31.8 34.9 37.6 38.2 36.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.3 81.1 80.6 80.0 79.4 77.5 75.8 73.9 71.5 67.9 63.1 56.7 49.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 6 7 9 9 11 13 19 23 24 27 30 32 31 31 27 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 2 7 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 13. 13. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -14. -23. -31. -40. -47. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 5. 5. 5. 6. 10. 13. 11. 3. -1. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 12. 15. 18. 24. 24. 16. 3. -6. -16. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.8 81.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 05/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.41 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 11.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.1% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 05/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 05/15/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 35 36 38 42 42 45 48 54 54 46 33 24 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 34 36 40 40 43 46 52 52 44 31 22 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 32 36 36 39 42 48 48 40 27 18 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 27 27 30 33 39 39 31 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT