* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 05/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 39 40 40 43 44 48 48 48 40 34 28 24 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 31 35 37 36 39 40 44 44 44 36 30 24 20 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 27 29 29 30 31 34 37 42 46 44 38 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 53 46 36 23 18 25 23 27 14 11 6 17 41 50 43 42 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 6 1 1 5 1 1 0 4 1 3 7 4 9 8 3 1 SHEAR DIR 260 255 261 250 236 277 263 264 243 267 226 267 274 277 289 280 281 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.2 26.1 26.5 26.8 25.5 24.7 23.3 21.7 19.6 19.9 20.3 19.2 19.9 20.0 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 114 113 117 121 108 102 94 88 81 82 83 80 81 81 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 101 99 99 102 105 95 90 85 81 75 76 77 74 75 75 78 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.9 -55.1 -55.6 -55.5 -56.0 -55.8 -56.2 -56.0 -56.4 -56.7 -57.8 -58.4 -58.9 -59.9 -60.4 -60.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 46 45 46 44 47 47 50 53 61 69 63 53 53 53 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 15 14 15 16 18 19 20 20 22 20 19 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 -8 9 11 -14 2 -36 -20 -32 10 49 39 -36 -84 -91 -108 200 MB DIV 58 63 61 90 57 28 13 -9 21 20 20 8 18 -17 10 -19 -12 700-850 TADV 2 6 13 12 7 11 5 5 10 17 13 -28 -54 -29 -6 -2 9 LAND (KM) 84 107 62 2 -3 66 224 386 515 474 603 703 842 1154 1393 1557 1706 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.2 24.6 25.2 25.7 26.7 27.7 28.6 30.1 32.1 34.7 36.6 37.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.2 81.0 80.9 80.6 80.3 79.4 78.0 76.6 74.9 72.5 69.2 65.1 60.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 12 17 19 19 19 19 16 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 1 0 5 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 13. 11. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -7. -11. -14. -14. -15. -20. -27. -34. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 6. 3. -0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 13. 14. 18. 18. 18. 10. 4. -2. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.9 81.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 05/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 05/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 05/15/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 31 35 37 36 39 40 44 44 44 36 30 24 20 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 28 32 34 33 36 37 41 41 41 33 27 21 17 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 23 27 29 28 31 32 36 36 36 28 22 16 DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 15 19 21 20 23 24 28 28 28 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT