* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 05/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 42 44 44 45 46 51 56 56 50 41 30 25 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 42 44 44 45 46 51 56 56 50 41 30 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 30 28 27 27 28 31 35 41 47 47 40 32 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 57 52 48 41 27 25 14 23 17 9 2 12 39 52 48 50 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 1 5 2 3 4 1 0 0 4 6 1 10 7 12 6 3 SHEAR DIR 268 256 253 255 243 246 259 271 278 253 186 258 248 274 263 258 253 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.6 26.8 25.7 24.6 23.9 22.2 19.9 20.8 20.7 19.1 19.4 20.6 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 119 116 118 121 111 101 97 90 82 85 86 82 84 87 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 105 103 101 104 105 98 89 86 82 77 79 79 78 80 82 81 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -55.1 -55.5 -55.7 -55.9 -56.1 -56.3 -56.5 -56.9 -57.5 -58.2 -58.3 -58.6 -59.0 -59.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 -0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 47 47 46 48 47 47 47 46 48 51 61 65 52 51 53 47 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 11 12 13 14 16 17 17 18 19 21 23 25 25 22 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR -6 0 -6 -6 11 0 15 -19 -10 -45 14 43 108 -11 -38 -66 -106 200 MB DIV 64 76 67 69 91 38 24 9 -6 21 42 0 19 -5 -26 -25 -11 700-850 TADV 9 2 11 17 16 11 5 2 10 11 19 -11 -104 -70 -65 -43 -14 LAND (KM) 63 110 95 45 10 89 235 440 598 521 543 617 714 1096 1393 1806 2142 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.8 25.4 26.4 27.5 28.3 29.5 31.4 34.3 37.0 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.2 80.8 80.6 80.5 80.2 79.2 77.8 75.9 74.4 72.6 70.0 66.1 60.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 6 7 7 9 8 10 15 20 21 23 27 31 27 22 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 7 2 6 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -10. -14. -17. -17. -17. -21. -29. -36. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 11. 4. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 16. 21. 26. 26. 20. 11. 0. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.7 81.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 05/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 05/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 05/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 38 40 42 44 44 45 46 51 56 56 50 41 30 25 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 38 40 40 41 42 47 52 52 46 37 26 21 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 32 34 34 35 36 41 46 46 40 31 20 15 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 26 26 27 28 33 38 38 32 23 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT