* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL902019 11/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 42 44 49 46 46 46 45 44 43 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 42 44 49 46 46 46 45 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 42 42 42 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 23 23 25 19 23 26 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 1 0 11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 311 299 290 271 253 221 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.2 26.0 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 135 134 134 128 118 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 123 121 119 119 118 112 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 52 49 49 40 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 12 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -34 -43 -47 -48 1 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 20 18 17 33 61 97 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -4 -2 0 3 11 43 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 701 682 673 690 714 884 1302 1782 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.8 24.3 27.0 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.4 59.8 60.3 60.5 60.8 60.1 57.2 52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 14 22 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 27 30 27 23 16 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 9. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.4 59.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 SEBASTIEN 11/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.26 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.05 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.3% 7.6% 6.4% 5.1% 7.5% 6.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.7% 2.6% 2.1% 1.7% 2.6% 2.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902019 SEBASTIEN 11/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 SEBASTIEN 11/19/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 42 42 44 49 46 46 46 45 44 43 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 40 42 47 44 44 44 43 42 41 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 38 43 40 40 40 39 38 37 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 37 34 34 34 33 32 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT