* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 11/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 37 35 34 30 27 25 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 37 35 34 30 27 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 21 24 24 25 20 25 23 38 47 57 49 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -1 -4 -2 0 0 3 6 -5 -12 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 278 305 319 315 308 285 256 237 233 240 254 263 271 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 26.4 26.0 25.2 24.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 136 135 135 134 134 133 120 117 109 102 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 123 123 122 120 118 120 123 110 108 99 92 93 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.9 -55.6 -56.2 -56.5 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 54 54 52 44 33 28 26 26 29 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -17 -22 -26 -34 -48 -10 19 12 -11 -36 -84 -106 200 MB DIV -4 20 11 6 12 15 37 78 48 30 12 -4 -20 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -3 -1 2 6 16 20 0 1 4 2 LAND (KM) 784 738 675 642 611 621 738 973 1311 1679 2056 2075 2089 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.6 22.6 23.8 25.2 26.7 27.9 29.1 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 58.3 58.8 59.5 60.0 60.5 60.9 60.3 58.4 55.4 52.1 48.5 45.2 42.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 5 5 7 14 15 18 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 31 28 29 31 36 37 25 30 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -8. -16. -26. -33. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 12. 10. 9. 5. 2. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.1 58.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 11/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.06 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.62 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.6% 5.9% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.2% 2.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902019 INVEST 11/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 11/19/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 37 35 34 30 27 25 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 29 30 35 33 32 28 25 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 26 31 29 28 24 21 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 19 24 22 21 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT