* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 11/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 40 37 36 29 25 22 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 40 37 36 29 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 23 20 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 22 24 21 19 15 25 33 50 49 52 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -3 -4 1 0 1 5 -6 -8 -8 3 SHEAR DIR 280 293 315 329 321 299 245 250 233 249 249 265 262 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 26.5 26.5 25.5 25.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 139 138 136 135 135 120 121 111 109 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 128 127 125 119 120 124 111 112 101 99 97 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.6 -56.0 -56.2 -56.3 -56.3 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 56 57 53 44 34 26 23 24 28 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 9 8 8 10 7 6 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -14 -21 -26 -33 -49 -28 -4 -2 -23 -22 -52 -74 200 MB DIV 5 -5 4 0 7 8 39 54 29 -4 11 -6 -33 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 0 -2 1 4 15 14 8 1 -4 0 LAND (KM) 814 754 690 634 611 626 729 925 1240 1562 1912 2230 2328 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.8 21.8 22.8 23.8 25.0 26.0 26.8 27.4 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 58.6 59.3 60.0 60.5 61.0 60.6 59.0 56.1 53.0 49.5 46.2 42.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 5 6 13 14 16 15 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 32 31 35 40 39 26 32 3 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -4. -12. -21. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -3. -8. -10. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 12. 11. 4. 0. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.9 58.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 11/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 8.8% 6.5% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.8% 2.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2% 2.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902019 INVEST 11/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 11/19/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 40 37 36 29 25 22 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 28 31 38 35 34 27 23 20 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 28 35 32 31 24 20 17 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 21 28 25 24 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT