* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 11/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 35 35 25 20 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 35 35 25 20 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 31 31 31 31 30 27 23 19 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 19 24 26 20 16 27 26 45 47 55 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 4 4 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 291 285 297 319 327 312 284 249 238 240 255 259 271 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 141 141 141 139 139 138 137 134 132 132 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 129 130 128 123 121 122 122 118 115 115 113 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 54 55 56 52 45 34 31 32 31 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 11 -10 -17 -20 -41 -47 -3 15 8 13 -8 -23 200 MB DIV 12 -6 -1 0 -5 4 18 38 40 10 24 -2 -19 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 -2 0 -1 2 -1 1 -1 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 791 709 638 571 511 476 490 560 679 776 827 889 922 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.8 20.5 21.0 21.3 21.4 21.1 20.9 21.0 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 58.2 59.0 59.7 60.4 61.1 61.8 62.0 61.4 60.1 58.9 58.3 57.7 57.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 4 2 4 7 4 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 40 48 55 60 58 52 32 25 26 30 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -5. -12. -20. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -14. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. -5. -10. -14. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.6 58.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 11/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 19.4% 13.8% 9.9% 9.8% 10.4% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.9% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.8% 5.6% 3.6% 3.3% 3.7% 3.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902019 INVEST 11/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 11/18/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 35 35 25 20 16 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 33 33 33 33 23 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 22 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT