* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 11/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 40 40 36 31 28 25 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 40 40 36 31 28 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 31 31 32 33 34 33 29 25 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 18 14 17 20 20 20 17 27 39 49 49 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 0 2 -5 0 -2 2 5 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 300 296 292 298 319 322 306 257 247 238 254 257 266 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 141 142 140 138 138 137 137 138 137 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 130 128 128 130 125 121 120 120 121 121 120 121 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 54 53 54 56 56 56 53 48 41 39 39 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 21 14 -4 -12 -24 -38 -22 -14 -2 14 12 2 200 MB DIV 15 1 -4 0 9 3 10 21 22 15 21 -1 -23 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 -4 -2 -4 0 LAND (KM) 865 770 707 645 586 501 484 518 545 568 555 560 538 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.8 20.3 20.6 20.4 20.0 19.6 19.4 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 58.4 59.0 59.6 60.2 61.2 61.6 61.4 61.0 60.6 60.6 60.5 60.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 6 5 2 2 2 3 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 40 36 36 40 48 56 59 58 51 46 49 50 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -9. -17. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 10. 10. 6. 1. -2. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.2 57.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 11/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.65 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 18.8% 13.4% 9.5% 9.4% 10.3% 11.6% 12.8% Logistic: 1.3% 3.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 7.5% 5.3% 3.4% 3.2% 3.6% 3.9% 4.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902019 INVEST 11/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 11/18/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 40 40 36 31 28 25 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 33 34 38 38 34 29 26 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 30 34 34 30 25 22 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 23 27 27 23 18 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT