* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 11/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 33 29 26 21 18 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 33 29 26 21 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 21 22 21 21 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 24 17 16 19 25 18 16 25 32 37 46 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 1 0 -2 0 0 5 5 6 19 10 SHEAR DIR 308 305 294 292 297 324 284 252 228 218 213 202 239 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 26.9 25.7 24.8 21.9 18.9 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 142 139 138 138 136 124 115 110 95 85 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 132 132 129 127 125 122 113 108 106 93 82 74 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.8 -55.7 -55.6 -55.6 -55.3 -55.6 -55.9 -56.2 -56.1 -55.8 -55.2 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 55 53 53 52 52 53 56 47 32 27 30 41 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 17 8 2 -15 -39 -54 -50 -25 -21 -16 0 121 200 MB DIV 9 15 -6 -21 3 -3 25 47 69 43 33 57 97 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -6 -7 -5 -4 4 16 33 7 -8 -43 37 LAND (KM) 1066 987 902 823 753 670 742 971 1331 1830 1527 1622 1135 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 22.2 23.7 25.6 27.6 30.2 34.3 40.2 46.0 LONG(DEG W) 55.6 56.4 57.3 58.2 59.1 60.8 61.5 60.5 57.5 52.6 45.3 35.1 22.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 10 9 9 13 21 30 45 53 52 HEAT CONTENT 35 42 38 30 27 34 21 13 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 19. 23. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -4. -9. -16. -23. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -8. -14. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 8. 4. 1. -4. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.0 55.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 11/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.44 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 13.0% 9.5% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.9% 3.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.2% 2.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902019 INVEST 11/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 11/18/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 33 29 26 21 18 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 27 28 28 32 28 25 20 17 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 23 24 24 28 24 21 16 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 18 18 22 18 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT