* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 11/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 34 34 34 27 23 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 34 34 34 27 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 22 21 22 22 23 23 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 25 18 13 22 18 17 17 26 38 58 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 2 4 2 -1 -5 0 0 3 1 -11 -10 SHEAR DIR 308 307 307 300 297 320 324 290 236 238 238 254 258 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 26.9 26.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 143 143 142 139 138 135 135 136 124 123 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 132 134 133 130 127 124 118 120 123 113 113 103 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.4 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 -55.3 -55.3 -55.6 -55.8 -56.0 -56.2 -56.4 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 55 55 54 56 52 43 31 26 26 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 7 7 8 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 30 20 13 6 -20 -45 -53 -25 -22 -24 -36 -42 200 MB DIV -9 8 10 -12 -28 6 16 19 42 56 25 5 -1 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -8 -5 -6 -3 0 2 3 3 4 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1030 1013 949 868 801 671 632 676 789 988 1229 1494 1801 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.4 21.5 22.5 23.2 23.9 24.4 24.9 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 55.1 55.8 56.7 57.5 58.2 59.7 60.7 61.0 60.2 58.3 55.8 53.1 50.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 8 8 8 7 4 7 11 12 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 28 36 43 40 34 33 43 31 28 41 9 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -6. -12. -20. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -9. -9. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 9. 9. 2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.1 55.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 11/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.9% 10.1% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.2% 3.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1% 2.8% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902019 INVEST 11/18/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 11/18/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 34 34 34 27 23 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 26 28 29 33 33 33 26 22 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 23 25 26 30 30 30 23 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 18 19 23 23 23 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT