* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 09/23/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 55 64 71 77 80 80 81 80 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 55 64 71 77 80 80 81 80 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 46 52 57 63 70 75 77 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 8 10 14 7 8 3 4 5 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 1 5 8 3 2 5 3 0 SHEAR DIR 237 261 277 267 283 284 339 5 299 273 239 240 241 SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 27.9 27.5 27.8 27.7 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 147 146 145 147 145 145 137 132 135 133 134 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 147 146 145 147 145 145 136 131 133 129 128 131 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 79 78 76 76 76 75 76 73 76 73 70 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 16 17 22 25 26 26 27 28 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 26 30 35 36 39 29 56 54 58 56 52 53 48 200 MB DIV 122 110 122 136 137 115 128 53 64 30 66 33 53 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -4 -8 -4 -3 3 5 9 5 6 6 LAND (KM) 402 544 690 815 942 1192 1474 1721 1945 1744 1671 1702 1817 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 13 14 13 13 14 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 10 11 11 18 17 10 22 20 11 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 25. 34. 41. 47. 50. 50. 51. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 20.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 09/23/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.72 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 22.9% 15.4% 8.9% 8.6% 11.3% 15.9% 37.5% Logistic: 4.5% 28.1% 10.1% 3.2% 1.6% 5.8% 10.4% 23.1% Bayesian: 2.5% 8.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 1.1% 3.1% Consensus: 4.1% 19.7% 8.9% 4.1% 3.5% 5.9% 9.1% 21.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 11.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 12.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 09/23/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 46 55 64 71 77 80 80 81 80 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 42 51 60 67 73 76 76 77 76 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 44 53 60 66 69 69 70 69 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 42 49 55 58 58 59 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT