* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 09/22/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 43 50 57 66 72 79 81 81 80 77 74 V (KT) LAND 30 36 43 50 57 66 72 79 81 81 80 77 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 35 39 44 48 54 60 67 73 81 88 87 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 9 7 8 6 7 4 2 6 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 5 6 6 5 3 4 5 2 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 214 234 262 284 267 274 298 354 8 254 226 230 256 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.6 27.9 27.6 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 148 149 145 148 147 142 132 137 133 133 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 154 148 149 145 148 147 142 130 137 130 127 128 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 75 74 73 72 73 72 72 67 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 15 18 20 21 22 25 25 25 26 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 17 25 33 39 48 42 50 62 48 50 59 54 45 200 MB DIV 103 132 142 161 184 142 120 47 42 78 51 30 58 700-850 TADV 1 -4 -5 -7 -7 -5 -1 -5 -2 3 3 -1 5 LAND (KM) 246 373 508 667 827 1094 1353 1627 1855 1908 1735 1680 1727 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 15 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 9 10 9 12 18 17 13 19 22 12 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 14. 14. 14. 15. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 16. 11. 6. 1. -3. -7. -9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 27. 36. 42. 49. 51. 51. 50. 47. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 18.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 09/22/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 144.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.81 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 46.0% 30.9% 12.4% 9.7% 15.1% 26.4% 51.3% Logistic: 13.2% 52.4% 26.8% 12.1% 5.6% 13.3% 17.7% 29.1% Bayesian: 7.8% 23.6% 5.9% 1.5% 1.6% 6.0% 4.4% 9.5% Consensus: 9.6% 40.6% 21.2% 8.7% 5.6% 11.5% 16.2% 30.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 23.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 12.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 09/22/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 36 43 50 57 66 72 79 81 81 80 77 74 18HR AGO 30 29 36 43 50 59 65 72 74 74 73 70 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 33 40 49 55 62 64 64 63 60 57 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 27 36 42 49 51 51 50 47 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT