* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 09/22/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 36 47 54 64 71 75 80 82 82 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 36 47 54 64 71 75 80 82 82 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 31 35 40 45 51 60 67 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 5 7 8 11 4 8 4 5 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 7 4 5 9 5 6 6 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 34 308 274 275 272 284 276 328 335 103 152 215 234 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.7 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 149 144 143 143 140 135 131 127 133 127 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 142 149 144 143 143 140 135 130 122 128 121 118 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.4 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 78 79 79 78 76 73 72 69 69 72 70 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 11 13 17 18 21 23 24 25 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 14 24 30 48 55 67 68 56 52 43 35 200 MB DIV 25 42 69 95 103 145 137 147 71 44 58 60 23 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 -3 -3 -7 -8 -7 -3 -9 1 4 7 LAND (KM) 143 214 319 463 616 925 1222 1508 1788 1969 1826 1765 1778 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.3 15.4 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 16.5 17.9 19.3 20.8 22.3 25.3 28.4 31.3 34.0 36.2 38.2 40.0 41.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 15 16 14 13 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 10 8 8 10 10 15 14 8 22 19 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 17. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 8. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 27. 34. 44. 51. 55. 60. 62. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 16.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 09/22/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.1% 46.3% 27.3% 15.5% 11.4% 19.8% 18.0% 27.1% Bayesian: 4.1% 22.2% 8.7% 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% 0.4% 4.1% Consensus: 6.7% 22.8% 12.0% 5.6% 4.1% 7.4% 6.1% 10.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 09/22/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 26 31 36 47 54 64 71 75 80 82 82 18HR AGO 20 19 22 27 32 43 50 60 67 71 76 78 78 12HR AGO 20 17 16 21 26 37 44 54 61 65 70 72 72 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT