* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 09/22/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 45 52 64 74 79 83 89 90 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 45 52 64 74 79 83 89 90 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 32 37 42 48 55 63 71 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 3 2 5 9 10 9 6 6 6 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 7 6 8 6 4 7 1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 56 38 327 287 281 312 290 330 339 19 154 206 217 SST (C) 28.7 28.3 28.3 28.7 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 143 143 148 141 141 144 140 135 129 128 131 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 143 143 148 141 141 144 140 134 127 123 126 122 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 73 79 78 79 79 76 73 73 71 69 71 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 11 15 16 20 23 23 24 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 1 5 12 16 23 43 56 61 72 59 57 53 44 200 MB DIV 38 27 41 71 98 141 137 170 121 35 50 52 40 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 0 -4 -8 -10 -11 -6 -8 -4 6 4 LAND (KM) 63 190 265 382 518 818 1110 1387 1646 1892 1919 1819 1804 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.4 14.0 15.0 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 15.5 17.0 18.5 19.9 21.3 24.2 27.1 30.0 32.6 35.0 36.9 38.9 40.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 14 15 14 13 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 7 10 7 8 12 14 15 11 11 23 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 17. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 12. 15. 15. 16. 18. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 25. 32. 44. 54. 59. 63. 69. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 15.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 09/22/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.6% 37.2% 19.4% 12.7% 10.9% 25.8% 29.6% 34.5% Bayesian: 4.0% 17.4% 3.5% 0.7% 0.2% 3.3% 1.3% 5.0% Consensus: 4.5% 18.2% 7.6% 4.5% 3.7% 9.7% 10.3% 13.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 09/22/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 26 30 34 45 52 64 74 79 83 89 90 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 30 41 48 60 70 75 79 85 86 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 35 42 54 64 69 73 79 80 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT