* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 08/24/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 30 33 38 45 51 54 59 67 71 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 34 42 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 31 38 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 27 27 17 16 7 21 8 7 5 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 -1 -3 0 0 1 -1 -2 0 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 318 298 294 303 286 266 205 244 252 201 205 223 225 SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.6 31.2 30.1 30.4 29.8 29.7 29.3 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 169 169 170 170 171 171 166 164 156 167 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 146 150 152 153 164 145 149 141 140 130 136 134 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 7 11 8 10 7 8 6 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 65 64 60 61 62 58 59 58 61 59 60 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -20 -51 -42 0 -60 -43 -57 -24 -26 -19 -23 -9 200 MB DIV 32 40 14 -5 5 2 16 39 10 -30 6 -2 33 700-850 TADV 5 5 4 10 9 2 10 8 13 0 7 -1 2 LAND (KM) 13 -8 -25 -45 -92 -87 -111 -149 -211 -126 66 193 206 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.5 30.9 31.4 31.8 32.0 31.9 31.3 31.0 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.0 93.6 93.2 92.5 90.8 89.1 87.0 84.9 82.5 80.6 79.3 78.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 5 7 7 9 9 10 10 7 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 39 24 10 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 43 73 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 8. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 8. 13. 20. 26. 29. 34. 42. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.6 94.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 08/24/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 14.8% 10.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 21.8% 12.2% 5.7% 2.2% 12.8% 21.1% 31.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 12.3% 7.4% 4.0% 0.7% 4.3% 10.4% 10.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902019 INVEST 08/24/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 08/24/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 34 42 46 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 34 42 46 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 30 38 42 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 24 32 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT